SHuRePlan

How well does this strategy stand up to different scenarios?

The final stage in developing the plan is to check that it will work.  This requires checking a number of things:

• Are the required actions within our control?
• Do we have the resources to carry them out?
• Is the plan sufficiently robust to cope with a range of possible eventualities?

Remember to document this step.  It will come in useful in the monitoring and review step when we come to assess what to do about the real contingencies that arise.

Testing robustness

By a robust plan we mean one that is able to stand up to whatever comes its way.  It does not mean a rigid plan.  In fact the most robust plans are those which have considerable flexibility built into them, allowing adjustments to be made in response to contingencies.

Plans often fail because the world changes in ways that were not predicted. There are limits to forecasting and forecasts are rarely accurate more than a small number of years ahead. This process is especially important when formulating long term plans.

The best way to test plans for robustness is the use of scenarios.  Scenarios are pictures of what the world in which we are operating might look like under different assumptions about how unknown factors might play out.  If chosen well scenarios can be useful in testing a plan or strategy to see how well it would stand up in different circumstances.  While they cannot test every eventuality they are able to show which strategies appear more able to cope with different challenges.  In the example below all the strategies work well in some circumstances but Strategy A is the most robust.