SHuRePlan

What are the likely inputs to and outputs from the workforce?

To forecast the future workforce and to control supply so that it meets demand we need to understand the flows into and out of the workforce.  The numbers in the workforce at any point in time will result from the balance between leavers and joiners. 

The skill in modelling the impact of these flows is in identifying the way in which the different flows work and the factors that control them. The 'How to guide' to stock-flow modelling explains the detailed modelling approaches that have been used. Some of the key factors are:

• Pull vs push flows: A pull flow is one where the flow is one where the numbers moving are controlled by the destination of the flow whereas push flows depend on the source. For example, promotions are commonly modelled as pull flows because they depend on the vacancies at the next level up. Retirement is normally seen as a push flow because it relates to the age structure of the workforce, which is the source of the flow.
  
  
• Age: Clearly wastage due to retirement will depend primarily on age.  However, younger staff typically have higher wastage rates than those in their forties.  In their twenties they are likely to be more footloose.  In their thirties they may be leaving for maternity and paternity breaks.  The key to understanding these patterns is information on past wastage rates by age.
  
  
• Length of service: Wastage typically peaks quite soon after people start a new job. This is often called the induction crisis. High levels of recruitment, for example to staff a new unit, are likely to lead to high levels of wastage.
  

  

• Labour market factors: A major factor influencing both recruitment and wastage is the relative attractiveness of an employer compared with others. This will depend on a range of factors. Pay is only one of these factors, the ability to offer working arrangements that meet individuals' needs and the non-financial rewards of the job are others. 

The knowledge base contains detailed guides on modelling wastage and recruitment as well as labour market modelling.