SHuRePlan

How are these forces for change likely to work?

To see how best to use the levers and how much impact external forces might have on the outcome, we need to explore the mechanisms by which the forces operate. There are a number of ways of doing this.

Impact and Uncertainty Analysis

The aim of this process is to identify the forces which require the most attention in the planning process. Ranking in terms of likely impact is an obvious step. Less obvious is to look at uncertainty. However, it is the forces that we least understand or are least predictable that are most likely to throw our plans off course.

In exploring how the forces are likely to impact, it is the ones that are high impact and high uncertainty that we should pay most attention to. In some cases better information or understanding might reduce the uncertainty but others will remain unpredictable. To deal with the latter we need to develop scenarios covering the range of impacts that they might have and develop strategies that can cope with each of these scenarios.

Causal analysis

The next stage in the analysis is to map how the various drivers might bring about change. A useful starting point is cause/effect analysis grouping together those drivers or causes which are likely to bring about a desired effect or outcome. A common way of capturing this is through the fishbone or Ishikawa diagram. Another common approach is force field analysis, where drivers are grouped according to whether they are likely to aid or oppose the achievement of the goals.

Where there is a lot of interaction between the various forces systems thinking and systems modelling can often help one to understand them.

The knowledge base contains detailed guides on how to apply these techniques.